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Partial martial law meaning9/7/2023 ![]() ![]() Moreover, the Kremlin’s previous propaganda that the “special military operations were going smoothly” was falling apart, and there was spreading recognition that “Russia may lose this war.” This partial mobilization changed the “special military operation” by professional soldiers, which had been “someone else’s affair,” into a “personal affair” with close ones sent to war. With rising speculations that the actual mobilization would be around one million, about 700,000 men left Russia, sparking renewed anti-war protests in the country. ![]() However, because draft notices were sent to students, the elderly, the sick, and other non-eligible men, and the mobilization period was until the end of the war, there was widespread unrest and opposition within Russia. Fearing backlash from civilians, Putin has been reluctant to order a general mobilization, but on September 21, he finally signed the “Executive Order on partial mobilization in the Russian Federation.”ĭefense Minister Sergei Shoigu explained that about 300,000 men with military service experience would be drafted. ![]() It is estimated that of the 150,000 regular soldiers deployed in Ukraine, over half of them have become incapable of combat and Russia faces a severe shortage of troops. On October 12, 2022, Russian independent media reported that, according to an incumbent officer and a former special unit officer of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (FSB), over 90,000 Russian soldiers were killed in the Ukraine war. The original goal must have been “annexation” through complete control up to the province border, but he rushed to action before setting the borderline of the “annexed” territories.ĭomestic Unrest with the First “Mobilization” since World War II He stated in his speech, “We will defend our land with all the powers and means at our disposal,” showing he does not hesitate to use nuclear weapons for homeland defense, which includes the four provinces claimed to be “annexed.” Behind Putin’s haste for the “annexation” was the deteriorating war situation, in which he wanted to promptly prevent Russian-controlled regions from scaling down. In response, on September 30, Putin declared to “annex” the four provinces into Russia. ![]() In the areas occupied by Russia, authorities holding transparent ballot boxes visited each home with armed soldiers to force voting, and the “sham referendum” with the overwhelming majority of the residents voting to become part of the Russian Federation was conducted. Instead, Ukrainian forces are increasing moves to regain the regions. The four provinces subject to “annexation” are not entirely controlled by Russia. The Russians fled on the surprise attack, and the abandoned tanks and other equipment fell into the hands of the Ukrainian army.Īs Ukraine recaptured the eastern region, from September 2022, Putin suddenly forced the voting dubbed “referendums” which had been put off several times. In hindsight, these moves were also part of an adept “diversionary tactic” to attract Russian attention to the south. In August, they caused a series of explosions in the Crimean Peninsula, where Russian forces had a rear base. Since July, the Ukrainian forces effectively destroyed Russian military bases on the southern front using High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and other equipment provided by the U.S. They succeeded in a lightning attack in the thinly manned eastern area by posing a reverse offensive in the south and luring elite Russian troops away from the east. In early September, Ukraine forces recaptured the eastern strategic city of Izium as well as the majority of the Kharkiv province. As the war situation worsens significantly for Russia, President Putin has played four cards in a succession-(1) “annexation” of four provinces in east and south Ukraine, (2) partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists, (3) military threat of nuclear use, and (4) imposing “martial law” on “annexed” regions.įorced “Annexation” of Four Provinces after Recapturing Eastern Region The offensive continues by the Ukrainian forces which have the lead, and the inferior Russian forces remain defensive. With the prolonged battle, both sides have ballooning casualties. Rather, there are concerns of escalating warfare, including the use of nuclear weapons. Nine months have passed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with no signs of an end to the war. To reposition the war effort, would it order a general mobilization, or go nuclear? Yet, forced to withdraw from Kharkiv province and Kherson city, Russia has few strategic options. In face of the Ukrainian offensive, the Kremlin seeks to strengthen forces and tighten domestic control by annexing four provinces, declaring martial law, and partial mobilization. ![]()
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